Succumbing to self-delusion is the enemy of every business. Intelligence flows will protect against the invisible decline. They help companies maintain a balanced perspective that considers both internal and external factors. The symptoms of decline are often gradual and can be easily overlooked. Once they reach a tipping point, frequently triggered by an event, decline can become sudden.

To protect against being shrouded in darkness, it is crucial to ensure that each business is adequately resourced. Additionally, having a plan to keep its business activities focused on the complex reality is essential. Intelligence consistently protects against unforeseen issues.

To protect from the invisible decline, two leadership principles apply.

Principle 1: Do not operate on Instinct

Operating on Instinct is not a secure position. It can have the opposite impact and diminish the intelligence message. This decision-making behaviour, in turn, can lead to business intelligence failures, putting the business at risk if faced with an unplanned event, increased competitor activity, changes in customer behaviour, or a shift in macro-environmental conditions. Guarding against such a decline is where intelligence flows come into play.

Strength comes from having a reliable and timely flow of intelligence, particularly from external sources. This position enables the application of industry knowledge and experience, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making. Without this evidence-based capability, the opportunity is narrowed, and the potential to succeed when challenged is limited (Gior & Hayden, 2025).

Principle 2: Do not create an Echo Chamber

Echo chambers form around decision-makers when they do not want to hear bad news or information that contradicts their narrative. As a result, there is a fear of retribution among advisors and employees if alternative news is delivered. Therefore, if those who surround the decision-makers echo the preferred narrative, intelligence feeds are negated. The organisation is then in danger of being isolated and hence disconnected from its surrounding external reality (Gior & Hayden, 2025). It is essential to employ intelligence flows to prevent invisible decline from threatening progress.

We do not need to look too far back into history to prove that this will occur; for example, the British Petroleum (BP) Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, as well as the cases of Nokia, BlackBerry, and Kodak.

Intelligence tuned to its industry, customer, competitors, and external environment empowers leaders to ask the right questions, test assumptions, and outline scenarios. This approach fosters a decision-making environment where ideas can be challenged, and evidence-based assessments are made for proactive planning and timely responses.

Organisations that actively challenge beliefs and established routines, and resource timely intelligence flows, will be among those that are not blindsided by the invisible decline. Constant vigilance with intelligence flows anchors against such a decline.

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Reference: Gior D.V. & Hayden M.V. 2025, ‘Trump is Breaking American Intelligence’, Foreign Affairs, July 2, 2025.